Computational and Near-Optimal Trade-Offs in Renewable Electricity System Modelling

In the decades to come, the European electricity system must undergo an unprecedented transformation to avert the devastating impacts of climate change. To devise various possibilities for achieving a sustainable yet cost-efficient system, in the thesis at hand, we solve large optimisation problems that coordinate the siting of generation, storage and transmission capacities. Thereby, it is critical to capture the weather-dependent variability of wind and solar power as well as transmission bottlenecks. In addition to modelling at high spatial and temporal resolution, this requires a detailed representation of the electricity grid. However, since the resulting computational challenges limit what can be investigated, compromises on model accuracy must be made, and methods from informatics become increasingly relevant to formulate models efficiently and to compute many scenarios. The first part of the thesis is concerned with justifying such trade-offs between model detail and solving times. The main research question is how to circumvent some of the challenging non-convexities introduced by transmission network representations in joint capacity expansion models while still capturing the core grid physics. We first examine tractable linear approximations of power flow and transmission losses. Subsequently, we develop an efficient reformulation of the discrete transmission expansion planning (TEP) problem based on a cycle decomposition of the network graph, which conveniently also accommodates grid synchronisation options. Because discrete investment decisions aggravate the problem\u27s complexity, we also cover simplifying heuristics that make use of sequential linear programming (SLP) and retrospective discretisation techniques. In the second half, we investigate other trade-offs, namely between least-cost and near-optimal solutions. We systematically explore broad ranges of technologically diverse system configurations that are viable without compromising the system\u27s overall cost-effectiveness. For example, we present solutions that avoid installing onshore wind turbines, bypass new overhead transmission lines, or feature a more regionally balanced distribution of generation capacities. Such alternative designs may be more widely socially accepted, and, thus, knowing about these degrees of freedom is highly policy-relevant. The method we employ to span the space of near-optimal solutions is related to modelling-to-generate-alternatives, a variant of multi-objective optimisation. The robustness of our results is further strengthened by considering technology cost uncertainties. To efficiently sweep the cost parameter space, we leverage multi-fidelity surrogate modelling techniques using sparse polynomial chaos expansion in combination with low-discrepancy sampling and extensive parallelisation on high-performance computing infrastructure

Costs of Regional Equity and Autarky in a Renewable European Power System

Social acceptance is a multifaceted consideration when planning future energy systems, yet often challenging to address endogeneously. One key aspect regards the spatial distribution of investments. Here, I evaluate the cost impact and changes in optimal system composition when development of infrastructure is more evenly shared among countries and regions in a fully renewable European power system. I deliberately deviate from the resource-induced cost optimum towards more equitable and self-sufficient solutions in terms of power generation. The analysis employs the open optimisation model PyPSA-Eur. I show that cost optimal solutions lead to very inhomogenous distributions of assets, but more uniform expansion plans can be achieved on a national level at little additional expense below 4%. Yet completely autarkic solutions, without power transmission, appear much more costly.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figure

The Near-Optimal Feasible Space of a Renewable Power System Model

Models for long-term investment planning of the power system typically return a single optimal solution per set of cost assumptions. However, typically there are many near-optimal alternatives that stand out due to other attractive properties like social acceptance. Understanding features that persist across many cost-efficient alternatives enhances policy advice and acknowledges structural model uncertainties. We apply the modeling-to-generate-alternatives (MGA) methodology to systematically explore the near-optimal feasible space of a completely renewable European electricity system model. While accounting for complex spatio-temporal patterns, we allow simultaneous capacity expansion of generation, storage and transmission infrastructure subject to linearized multi-period optimal power flow. Many similarly costly, but technologically diverse solutions exist. Already a cost deviation of 0.5% offers a large range of possible investments. However, either offshore or onshore wind energy along with some hydrogen storage and transmission network reinforcement are essential to keep costs within 10% of the optimum.Comment: Accepted to the 21st Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC 2020); 9 pages, 8 figures, 3 table

Heuristics for Transmission Expansion Planning in Low-Carbon Energy System Models

Governments across the world are planning to increase the share of renewables in their energy systems. The siting of new wind and solar power plants requires close coordination with grid planning, and hence co-optimization of investment in generation and transmission expansion in spatially and temporally resolved models is an indispensable but complex problem. Particularly considerations of transmission expansion planning (TEP) add to the problem's complexity. Even if the power flow equations are linearized, the optimization problem is still bilinear and mixed-integer due to the dependence of line expansion on line impedance and a discrete set of line expansion options. While it is possible to linearize this mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) by applying a big-M disjunctive relaxation, the resulting MILP is still hard to solve using state-of-the-art solvers for large-scale energy system models. In this paper we therefore develop heuristics to incorporate integer transmission expansion and responsive line impedances in energy system models, while retaining the lower computational effort of continuous linear programming (LP) by applying sequential linear programming (SLP) techniques, relaxation and discretization approaches. We benchmark their performance against the results of the exact formulation for a policy-relevant case study of the German transmission system in terms of their speed-up in computation time, deviation from optimal total system cost, and similarity of line expansion. Using heuristics we reduce computation times of joint generation and transmission optimisation by 82% with a maximal total system cost deviation of only 1.5%. The heuristics closely mirror optimal integer line investment of the exact MINLP with considerable time savings for policy-relevant low-carbon energy system optimization models.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, conference, EEM 201

The near-optimal feasible space of a renewable power system model

Models for long-term investment planning of the power system typically return a single optimal solution per set of cost assumptions. However, typically there are many near-optimal alternatives that stand out due to other attractive properties like social acceptance. Understanding features that persist across many cost-efficient alternatives enhances policy advice and acknowledges structural model uncertainties. We apply the modeling-to-generate-alternatives (MGA) methodology to systematically explore the near-optimal feasible space of a completely renewable European electricity system model. While accounting for complex spatio-temporal patterns, we allow simultaneous capacity expansion of generation, storage and transmission infrastructure subject to linearized multi-period optimal power flow. Many similarly costly, but technologically diverse solutions exist. Already a cost deviation of 0.5% offers a large range of possible investments. However, either offshore or onshore wind energy along with some hydrogen storage and transmission network reinforcement appear essential to keep costs within 10% of the optimum

Broad ranges of investment configurations for renewable power systems, robust to cost uncertainty and near-optimality

Code for "Broad Ranges of Investment Configurations...

Hydrogen refueling station networks for heavy-duty vehicles in future power systems

A potential solution to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector is to use alternatively fueled vehicles (AFV). Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) emit a large share of GHG emissions in the transport sector and are therefore the subject of growing attention from global regulators. Fuel cell and green hydrogen technologies are a promising option to decarbonize HDVs, as their fast refueling and long vehicle ranges are consistent with current logistic operational requirements. Moreover, the application of green hydrogen in transport could enable more effective integration of renewable energies (RE) across different energy sectors. This paper explores the interplay between HDV Hydrogen Refueling Stations (HRS) that produce hydrogen locally and the power system by combining an infrastructure location planning model and an electricity system optimization model that takes grid expansion options into account. Two scenarios – one sizing refueling stations to support the power system and one sizing them independently of it – are assessed regarding their impacts on the total annual electricity system costs, regional RE integration and the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The impacts are calculated based on locational marginal pricing for 2050. Depending on the integration scenario, we find average LCOH of between 4.83 euro/kg and 5.36 euro/kg, for which nodal electricity prices are the main determining factor as well as a strong difference in LCOH between north and south Germany. Adding HDV-HRS incurs power transmission expansion as well as higher power supply costs as the total power demand increases. From a system perspective, investing in HDV-HRS in symbiosis with the power system rather than independently promises cost savings of around seven billion euros per annum. We therefore conclude that the co-optimization of multiple energy sectors is important for investment planning and has the potential to exploit synergies

Meteorological conditions during Dunkelflauten in Germany: Characteristics, the role of weather regimes and impacts on demand

Renewable generation from wind and solar power is strongly weather-dependent. To plan future sustainable energy systems that are robust to this variability, a better understanding of why and when periods of low wind and solar power output occur is valuable. We call such periods of low wind and solar power output `Dunkelflauten', the German word for dark wind lulls. In this article, we analyse the meteorological conditions during Dunkelflauten in Germany by applying the concept of weather regimes. Weather regimes are quasi-stationary, recurrent, and persistent large-scale circulation patterns which explain multi-day atmospheric variability (5-15 days). We use a regime definition that allows us to distinguish four different types of blocked regimes, characterised by high pressure situations in the North Atlantic-European region. We find that in Germany, Dunkelflauten mainly occur in winter when the solar power output is anyway low and when the wind power output drops for several consecutive days. A high-pressure system over Germany, associated with the European Blocking regime, is responsible for most of the Dunkelflauten. Dunkelflauten during the Greenland Blocking regime are associated with colder temperatures than usual, causing higher electricity demand and presenting a particular challenge as space heating demand electrifies in future. Furthermore, we show that Dunkelflauten occur predominantly when a weather regime is well-established and persists longer than usual. Our study provides novel insight on the occurrence and meteorological characteristics of Dunkelflauten, which is essential for planning resilient energy systems and supporting grid operators to prepare for potential shortages in supply.Comment: 20pages, 11figures, submitted to "Meteorological Applications" by Royal Meteorological Society (https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14698080